Middle East Report...

...from inside the Bush Administration (via Rich Lowry of National Review).

Just talked to someone in-the-know about administration Middle East policy. I took a quick tour of the region with him.

He warned against giddiness, but says things are definitely heading in the right direction. He says attacks against Americans in Iraq are ebbing near an all-time low since the insurgency really got going. Attacks against Iraqis, of course, continue unabated. But the public seems to be turning increasingly against the insurgency, especially in Baghdad, partly under the influence of a nightly anti-insurgency television program. We're locking up more of the bad guys, which means we need more prisons (something we should have taken care of a long time ago).

Overall we seem to be at--to use a terrible cliche--a potential “tipping point” in Iraq. The elections changed the entire atmosphere, although if the process of choosing a prime minister goes on much longer it will begin to test the patience of the Iraqi public and squander good will.

In Afghanistan, Taliban attacks on both Americans and the government have hit an all-time low.

Of course, events in Lebanon have been stunning. The administration is using every possible lever against the Syrians--pushing them in a serious, serious way. That the Saudis have gotten on board is a sign that they know which way the tide is headed and that it is no longer sustainable to look the other way over an Arab country's occupation of another Arab country. There has been a useful convergence of interests between the US and France over Syria, prompted by Chirac's personal relationship with Hariri and outrage at his assassination.

On Iran, the administration seems to be coming to the conclusion that the EU3 approach will fail one way or another, so it is better if the US is part of the process so it can't be conveninetly blamed when it doesn't work. We may see the administration dangling some carrots Tehran's way. If (when) this doesn't work, perhaps we will apply the lesson we are learning with Syria--pressure works.

In general, people shouldn't be unrealistic. There will still be plenty of bad news in the future. But the tectonic plates have shifted in the Middle East the last few weeks and there's no pushing them back.