Blacks and Bush

Clarence Page is worried that blacks will turn out for Bush. Why?

What accounts for this black surge in Bush support? Bositis says most of it comes from conservative, church-going African-Americans who are over age 50, opposed to gay marriage and have not experienced a decline in their incomes during the Bush years.

On the flip side, Kerry's strongest black support comes from the youngsters aged 18 to 35, who also happen to feel worse-off financially than older generations, according to what they told poll takers.

That marks an unexpected generational switch. In 2000, Bositis said, more members of the under-35 group called themselves Republicans or independents than any other age bracket did. This year, more of them call themselves Democrats than any other age bracket, and more of the oldest voters call themselves Republicans or independents.

Social conservatism is hardly new to us African-Americans, but in the past, our economic and political liberalism kept us voting for Democrats since the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal. This year, Bush's political adviser Karl Rove urged him to reach out to evangelicals and other social conservatives, and it appears to have paid off among some blacks, too.

...I suspect Bush's high-level black appointments like Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice also have helped increase his comfort level even among those black voters who disagree with him on many social and economic issues, judging by what some have told me. A little symbolism can go a long way with some voters.

All of which poses a big challenge for Kerry and his supporters. Younger voters of all races may give him the most support but they also have the lowest turnout rates.